Jamaica e Indonesia: ¿es fácil aumentar el valor añadido de las exportaciones?

Es interesante este ejemplo que nos da Cullen Hendrix, del PIIE, sobre los problemas de algunos países "pobres" para conseguir aumentar el valor añadido de sus exportaciones. Una política que es fácil recomendar a los países exportadores de materias primas es que traten de aumentar el valor añadido de lo que exportan, que transformen "algo" esas materias primas. Bueno, esto es facilísimo recomendar, pero que tiene su dificultad. Y ahí vienen sus dos ejemplos: los casos de Jamaica y de Indonesia.

Energy has been Jamaica's Achilles heel. The island is bauxite rich but energy poor, leaving it highly dependent on fossil fuel imports for electricity generation. This dependence has resulted in electricity costs double the global average, and these prices tend to spike along with global oil and gas prices. High energy costs are one reason (among several) why Jamaica's bauxite and alumina industry went into relative decline in the 1970s, the decade of seismic global oil shocks. Data from the 2020s demonstrate that Jamaican alumina refining continues to be sensitive to energy prices, with alumina output nearly halved in 2022 relative to 2021 as oil prices spiked after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Citing high energy costs and environmental concerns, some prominent voices in Jamaica—which has robust tourism and services industries—have called for Jamaica to quit the sector entirely.

Indonesia's success with nickel downstreaming has prompted several countries to follow suit, hoping to move up global value chains and build domestic industry. But Jamaica's experience with downstreaming demonstrates the challenge of meeting energy demands, especially as countries are trying to lower their carbon footprints and compete on price with China, Australia, and Brazil (and Indonesia, which has extended its nickel ore export ban to include bauxite as well), which have massive advantages in terms of scale and energy endowments. Indonesia's experience may thus be hard to replicate: Its large market share, linkages with existing Chinese supply chains, fossil energy endowments, and large home market and diversified export profile may have combined to make Indonesia a downstreaming unicorn.