jueves, 9 de mayo de 2013

Ajuste del sector exterior en la UE

Interesante artículo de Martin Wolf en el Financial Times. Opina que Alemania está convirtiendo a los países socios de la UE en "pequeñas Alemanias". Dos puntos que me parecen clave en su artículo:
  1. Esto, entre otras cosas, se refiere a que quiere que tengan un perfil exportador de bienes, que les lleve a ser superavitarios en la balanza por cuenta corriente. 
  2. El ajuste está siendo fuerte en el sector exterior. ¿Problema? Martin Wolf no lo ve muy factible.
Y aquí van un par de párrafos seleccionados del texto de Martin Wolf, que reflejan esos dos puntos arriba señalados:
According to the IMF, France will be the only large eurozone member country to run a current account deficit this year. It forecasts that, by 2018, every current eurozone member, except Finland, will be a net capital exporter. The eurozone as a whole is forecast to run a current account surplus of 2.5 per cent of GDP. Such reliance on balancing via external demand is what one would expect of a Germanic eurozone.

The eurozone is not a small and open economy, but the second-largest in the world. It is too big and the external competitiveness of its weaker countries too frail to make big shifts in the external accounts a workable post-crisis strategy for economic adjustment and growth. The eurozone cannot hope to build a solid recovery on this, as Germany did in the buoyant 2000s. Once this is understood, the internal political pressures for a change in approach will surely become overwhelming.

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