Preparando estos días un tema para clase de Máster, he visto que las principales instituciones mundiales que tienen algo que decir del comercio han dedicado sus informes recientes al comercio digital y al papel de la Inteligencia Artificial en los intercambios. Entre otros están la OMC, la UNCTAD, el ITC, o el FMI. Este auge de lo digital creo que queda muy ejemplarizado en la figura adjunta que nos muestra en su informe anual el FMI (haz clic sobre ella para aumentarla). Da un poco de miedo.
By contrast, it’s hard to find people who aren’t worried about AI. It’s common to hear warnings that AI will eliminate large categories of jobs, and maybe even lead to mass unemployment. I take the first prospect seriously — past technological change has taken away most of the jobs in major occupations, from coal miners to longshoremen. As a card-carrying economist, I’m skeptical about the second: People have been predicting mass unemployment caused by automation since the 1930s, and it keeps not happening. But the point is that AI is creating widespread anxiety even as it boosts GDP in the short run.
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My guess is that the current tech boom, like the 90s boom, will end in a painful bust.
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