San Fermín y precios de los alimentos

Hoy no estoy en Pamplona. Me he escapado de la ciudad. Demasiado trote para mí. Así que estoy a 700 kilómetros de Pamplona con tranquilidad, descansando, paseando con los niños, leyendo, y también he aprovechado para hacerle una pregunta al economista jefe de comercio internacional del Banco Mundial, Will Martin, sobre el precio de los alimentos. Hoy él iba a responder on-line a preguntas sobre el tema, y he tenido suerte de que respondiera mi pregunta.

Antonio G. Gomez-Plana:

According to some World Bank estimates, free trade on food commodities can increase prices on several developing countries. Then, this kind of price effects seem to suggest that the 'safer' way to lower food prices (or to avoid its continuous increase) is improve productivity. Is a new Green Revolution 'the only key' for the problem in the long term?

Will Martin:

Dear Antonio

A continuing Green Revolution that raises the productivity of poor farmers in developing countries is the key in the longer term. Liberalizing world trade will, indeed, raise world prices. But the estimates in my recent book with Kym Anderson suggest that full global trade liberalization would raise world prices of staple foods by around 5 percent. Consumer prices in most developing countries would actually fall in this situation because of the abolition of tariffs. Liberalization of the type undertaken under WTO agreements on agriculture tends to be poverty reducing because it covers a much wider range of commodities than just staple foods, and creates opportunities for developing countries in value-added commodities.