¿Por qué es bueno que aumente el comercio?

Llevo unas semanas escribiendo entradas en las que muchos agentes muestran su preocupación porque el comercio se está ralentizando tendencialmente (ver aquí, o OMC, o FMI, o UNCTAD). ¿Y por qué es esto malo? A esto tratan de responder Gary Clyde Hufbauer y Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu en este trabajo. La clave, resumida, la señalan en sus conclusiones:

As Paul Krugman famously said, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything. A country’s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker” (Krugman 1997). Productivity is the engine of long-run growth and prosperity.

Theory, empirical studies, and speculative calculations in this Policy Brief all convey a simple message: Greater exposure to trade increases productivity. Policies that support greater trade liberalization would help escape the productivity slowdown. Ratifying the TPP and energizing negotiations on the TTIP and the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) would make important contributions. The opposition to the TPP expressed by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is misguided. The next US president should view renewed trade liberalization as essential to enhancing productivity and spurring economic growth in the decade ahead.